JAKARTA: The country is likely to see a more reserved Idul Fitri this year as fewer people participate in the mudik (exodus) tradition amid financial hardship, widespread layoffs and President Prabowo Subianto ’s sweeping austerity measures.
Transportation Minister Dudy Purwagandhi predicted earlier this week that the peak of mudik travel would occur on Friday (March 28), or three days before Idul Fitri, and advised travellers to begin their homecoming journeys early to avoid congestion.
The government had previously moved school holidays to an earlier date and implemented a work-from-anywhere (WFA) policy for state workers to help distribute mudik travel more evenly.
State-owned toll road operator PT Jasa Marga said some 955,000 vehicles had been leaving Greater Jakarta from Friday to Wednesday, the majority going eastward to the Trans-Java toll road and Bandung, West Java, while the rest headed westward to Merak and southward to Puncak.
The figure was 1.5 per cent higher than the comparable period in last year’s mudik, though only the toll gate to the Trans-Java toll road saw a major spike in vehicles.
As of Wednesday, the Nusantara regional division of Jasa Marga reported a four per cent increase in traffic across four toll roads in North Sumatra, East Kalimantan and North Sulawesi, with around 7,000 more vehicles on the road than usual.
Despite the figures, a study by the Transportation Ministry predicts that some 146 million people will travel to their hometowns for this year’s Idul Fitri, a 23 per cent drop from last year’s prediction of 193 million people.
After last year’s Idul Fitri, the ministry announced that 242 million mudik travellers had been recorded.
While Transportation Minister Dudy Purwagandhi has not provided a specific reason for the expected decline in travellers, analysts attribute it to the bleak state of the economy amid mass layoffs across multiple sectors, which have led to weaker purchasing power.
Economists previously warned that President Prabowo’s order to cut some Rp 306 trillion (US$18.48 billion) from the state budget this year, to fund initiatives such as the free meals programme, would hurt the nation’s economy and people’s purchasing power.
The Land Transportation Organization (Organda) reported that nine days before Idul Fitri, bus occupancy was only around 60 per cent, which is typical for regular days.
"Compared to the same period in previous years, bus occupancy during the mudik season usually reaches 80 to 90 per cent," Organda secretary general Ateng Aryono said on Saturday, as quoted by Kompas.
On Wednesday, over 14,000 Jakarta residents departed for cities and regencies across Central Java as part of the “free mudik” programme offered by the government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to help travellers in need.
Among them were visually impaired Faedah and her son Arif, who were heading back to their hometown of Cilacap, Central Java, on one of the 289 buses leaving from Taman Mini Indonesia Indah in East Jakarta. Central Java Governor Ahmad Luthfi was present to see them off. “Thank God, I’m happy and comfortable.
Thanks to this free mudik programme, we were able to save Rp 500,000 [US$30],” Faedah told The Jakarta Post.
Another traveller, ride-hailing driver Mundoko, expressed gratitude that the programme had allowed him to perform mudik with his wife.
Demand for the free mudik programme has increased this year, and in response, the Transportation Ministry offered more than a thousand extra tickets
State-owned lender Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) also provided 6,000 free tickets, doubling last year’s figure.
Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) executive director Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara said the spike in interest stemmed from the current “weak state of the economy”.
“More travellers looking for free trips shows that people’s spending ability has weakened,” Bhima told the Post.
Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) economist Tauhid Ahmad noted that many travellers were seeking to save money this year instead of going on a costly trip.
Transportation Ministry spokesperson Elba Damhuri did not immediately respond to the Post’s question on whether observations on the road so far had borne out the predicted decline. Businesses have also projected a decrease in the circulation of money, as fewer people are expected to bring money back to their hometowns.
The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) has forecast a 12.3 per cent drop in money circulation during this year’s Idul Fitri compared to last year.
“Last year, we estimated that Idul Fitri would drive Rp 157.3 trillion in money circulation. This year, we expect only Rp 138 trillion,” Kadin’s deputy chair for regional autonomy, Sarman Simanjorang, said on Tuesday, as quoted by Kompas. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
